NFL bettors are going to remember where they were when they witnessed one of the most improbable backdoor covers in recent memory during the final seconds between the Rams and Eagles last week.
While sitting in his office, Chuck Esposito heard the booming roar that echoed out of the sportsbooks as big man Jordan Davis rumbled into the end zone to give Eagles bettors the outright victory and the -3.5 cover against the spread.
“I looked up at the TV to see it happen,” says Esposito, the race and sports director for Station Casinos. “I felt like I was at the game because the crowd was loud in the sportsbook.”
It was a chaotic Week 3 that had a few surprising upsets, including the Panthers blowing out the Falcons and the Browns prevailing with a last-second field goal against Green Bay.
Esposito is expecting more lopsided games in Week 4, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the favorites will go back to dominating like they did through the first two weeks of the season.
The Bills are laying a whopping 16.5 points at home vs. the winless Saints for the largest spread of the season so far. Last week, Buffalo had somewhat of an inflated number, laying 12.5 points at home vs. Miami, which covered after losing by only 10 points. But the number against the Saints seems about right because they lost by 31 points in Seattle and now have to travel to the opposite side of the country to face arguably the best offense in the league.
Still, the number is way too high for me. I’ll avoid this one and keep my peace in case another wild backdoor cover emerges.
“It’s a gigantic number,” Esposito says. “We have seen some sharp play on the Saints at +17, but my gut feeling is we’re still going to need the Saints when this game kicks off on Sunday.”
With insight from Esposito, here’s everything you need to know about the NFL Week 4 games.
Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 4
Esposito is expecting the sharps and the public to be split on the Rams being 3.5-point favorites at home against the undefeated Colts.
From the public standpoint, they’re likely viewing the Colts as pretenders with Daniel Jones and won’t forget about the Rams nearly beating the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. As for the sharps, there could be value in getting that many points for an offense that has only punted once this season.
“Danny Dimes has played great, which is more of a glaring indictment of the Giants’ organization,” Esposito says.
I’m going to have to side with the public on this one. The Rams’ defense is good enough to force Indy to punt multiple times in this matchup. This could be the first time this season that Jones sees constant pressure in the pocket. He might not be able to overcome hits the same way that Jalen Hurts did last week against the Rams. Then again, the Colts’ offensive line only allowed one sack to the Broncos’ stout defense in Week 2.
Surprisingly, the Chiefs are home underdogs for the second time in three weeks to start the season. Esposito is expecting the public to lay the -2.5 points on the Ravens while the sharps could back a desperate Chiefs team.
Baltimore has only covered once this season and have had a handful of issues, especially defensively against the Bills and Lions. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have the weapons that Jared Goff and Josh Allen have at their disposal, but maybe this is a game that Mahomes reminds the football public of why he’s regarded as the best quarterback in the league. There’s also a chance that wide receiver Xavier Worthy is cleared to play from his shoulder injury.
“I think it’s a much bigger game for the Chiefs than it is for the Ravens,” Esposito says. “I don’t think a loss is catastrophic for the Ravens.”
Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 4
Esposito and his staff at the Station Casinos sportsbooks will be huge fans of the Cowboys (+6.5 vs. Packers), Browns (+10 at Lions) and Giants (+6.5 vs. Chargers) for the Week 4 slate.
The public won’t care about the Packers losing to the Browns and will gladly lay the seven points for a road matchup against the Cowboys for . There’s too much going against Dallas, which will likely be without CeeDee Lamb and some key players on the offensive line and in the secondary.
Oh, and Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons will be looking for revenge against Jerry Jones’s team.
“I know the Packers are playing back-to-back road games,” Esposito says. “But you look at Russell Wilson, you look at Caleb Williams, their two best games this season were against the Cowboys’ defense. I know the Cowboys are at home, but it’s Micah coming back, no CeeDee Lamb.
“It’s a Sunday night game where everything will be dumping into that game. I think we’re going to be huge Cowboys fans on Sunday night.”
It’s tough seeing the sportsbooks getting a favor from the Cowboys for this one. The same can be said about the Browns, despite them covering against the Packers and Bengals in the first three weeks.
Cleveland just doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace vs. the Lions’ explosive offense. The Browns kept it close for a while against the Ravens in Week 2, but they eventually ran out of gas in the second half and lost by 24 points. As of Wednesday, there’s been no sharp play on the Browns, according to Esposito.
Odds Movement NFL Week 4
The line for Giants-Chargers only moved from 6 points to 6.5 points after the news broke of the team benching Wilson in favor of rookie Jaxson Dart. Usually, it jumps more than that for a rookie making his debut vs. a top defense.
“It wasn’t totally unexpected,” Esposito says of the QB change in New York. “It was only a slight adjustment. … I think outside of that game against the Cowboys, just the ineffectiveness of Russell Wilson didn’t cause that number to jump that much and the fact that Jaxson Dart played so well in the preseason.”
For all their struggles, the Chiefs still covered as six-point favorites on the road against the winless Giants. The Chargers are better than the Chiefs and they’re essentially laying the same amount of points vs. the Giants.
The Cardinals opened as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Seahawks, but thanks to early sharp action, Seattle is now the one-point favorite for . That’s not a surprising move considering how inconsistent the Cardinals’ offense has been this season.
Big Bets on the Jaguars
Esposito has seen plenty of sharp money on the Jaguars at +3.5 for Sunday’s road game against the undefeated 49ers.
It’s still unknown whether Brock Purdy will return or Mac Jones will get the start for the third consecutive game. Also, this will be San Francisco’s first game without Nick Bosa, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in last week’s win vs. the Cardinals.
Personally, I tend to avoid betting on the Jaguars, but I understand the line of thinking here from the sharps. Trevor Lawrence appears to be a better quarterback under the guidance of new coach Liam Coen and that’s with minimal production from Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, the offensive player.
“We clearly have seen some sharp money on the Jags +3.5 that caused us to go to three on the game,” Esposito says. “How healthy are the Niners? Early on, the sharps have been on the Jags.”
Manzano’s NFL Week 4 Betting Tips
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Buck the trend: Giants (+6.5) vs. the Chargers
Going back to Esposito saying he’s going to be fans of the Cowboys, Browns and Giants this week, I’m willing to bet at least one of those teams comes through for the sportsbooks. No one saw the Panthers and Browns winning last week.
I’ll take a chance on Dart surprising the Chargers’ defense. He’ll give them trouble early before L.A. takes control late. Hey, maybe even a garbage-time backdoor cover occurs.
Enticing Bet: Falcons (+1.5) vs. Commanders
Yes, the Falcons were embarrassed by the Panthers. But I like them to bounce back here because they can defend and run the football well with Bijan Robinson. And it’s not looking likely that Terry McLaurin plays Sunday and there’s still a chance that Jayden Daniels is sidelined another week.
Moneyline Dog: Chiefs (+124) vs. Ravens
The Lions might have delivered the blueprint for how to beat the Ravens. I get that the Chiefs don’t have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but look for coach Andy Reid to cook up a productive game plan. Kansas City needs this game a lot more than Baltimore.
SuperDog: Panthers (+5.5) at Patriots
Maybe the Panthers have turned a corner on their slow-moving rebuild. Carolina had one of its best defensive performances in a very long time during the 30-point win vs. Atlanta last week.
The Patriots are also in the midst of a rebuild, but coach Mike Vrabel’s crew might still be a year away from being a playoff contender. Not saying that’s where the Panthers are, but coach Dave Canales has improved many areas in the past two years.
Not So Risky: Vikings (-2.5) vs. Steelers (Ireland)
After a few slow games, the Vikings’ ferocious defense found its stride in the blowout win over the Bengals last week. Aaron Rodgers said the Steelers were lucky the Patriots turned the ball over last week. It might be Pittsburgh this week that can’t protect the football against Minnesota.
Stay Away: Bears (+1.5) at Raiders
I’m staying super far away from this one. I don’t put too much stock in the Bears beating a bad Cowboys’ defense at home. And I’m done with being burned by the Raiders, who were blown out by Marcus Mariota last week.
Parlay: Eagles (-3.5) at Buccaneers, Jaguars (+3.5) at 49ers, Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Jets
The Buccaneers not having Mike Evans and the close wins vs. the winless Texans and Jets in back-to-back weeks is concerning. I’ll side with the sharps here and live dangerously by supporting the Jaguars. Dolphins showed plenty of fight in Buffalo. Maybe that carries over into Monday night vs. the Jets.
Favorite Fave: Rams (-3.5) vs. Colts
I’m not sold on the Colts. The Rams’ stout defense will expose this Daniel Jones–led Indy offense. On the opposite side, I expect a better performance from Matthew Stafford after letting one get away in Philly.
Best Over/Under Total: Panthers-Patriots (over 42.5, -118)
I can see Bryce Young and rookie Tetairoa McMillan putting up points on a suspect Patriots defense. Drake Maye can also move the ball, but he needs to protect the football better.
