Think back to the morning of the Fourth of July. Our nation’s birthday. Quintessential America. Barbecues. Burgers. Fireworks. Everything as you expect, including the Dodgers with the best record in baseball.
Now seems like a long time ago. Since then, the Dodgers have been as sorry as a sack of soggy charcoal briquettes: 12–21. Only the Nationals and the Rays have been worse.
Wait, the Dodgers? The $391 million payroll Dodgers? The same Dodgers who gobbled up so many high-profile free agents last winter we started asking, “Are the Dodgers good for baseball?”
Eight months later, now we’re asking, “Will the Dodgers ever play good baseball?”
They better figure it out quickly. Starting tonight, the Dodgers play six of their next 10 games against the smoking hot, deadline-fortified, first-place San Diego Padres.
What is wrong with the Dodgers? It’s time to dig in.
1. Maybe the Dodgers are just in a slump
All teams go through valleys. At some point in June, the Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Astros and Yankees all had leads as big as 5 1/2 games. All gone.
But slumps this deep are rare for the Dodgers. In the past 30 years, here are the only seasons in which the Dodgers hit .236 and lost at least 21 games in a 33-game span:
Dodgers Seasons with 33-Game Span With 21+ Losses and Hitting .236 or Worse (Wild Card Era)
Year
Final Record
Postseason Result
2003
85–77
None
2010
80–82
None
2012
82–76
None
2017
104–58
Lost World Series
2025
?
?
I know you optimistic Dodger fans are thinking:
But the problems this year go deeper than 33 games. Let’s continue.
2. Dodgers don’t measure well against good teams
Los Angeles is 28–32 against teams that are .500 or better. Among the 12 teams in playoff position today, only the Tigers are worse against good competition.
To find the last Dodgers team that had a losing record against teams .500 and above, you must go back a decade, to 2015, when Don Mattingly was the manager, Andrew Friedman had just arrived as president of baseball operations—and the Dodgers were booted in the NLDS by the Mets.
That best record on the Fourth of July? Fool’s gold. The Dodgers were 14–1 against the Rockies, Marlins and White Sox. They proceeded to get swept by the Astros and then twice by the Brewers.
3. Dodgers are a poor team in defensive efficiency
This is shocking news.
What is defensive efficiency? It’s the measurement of how often a team turns batted balls into outs. I like this measurement because it does not isolate defense but reflects the unbreakable marriage between pitching and defense. A pitching staff that gets weak contact, for instance, makes the job easier for the defense.
This has been Andrew Friedman’s secret sauce. You can talk all you want about the Dodgers’ money, technology, scouting, international footprint, annoying speaker system at Dodger Stadium, whatever … turning batted balls into outs is what they do best under Friedman.
No more. Their amazing six-year year run of elite pitching combined with elite defense is over.
Dodgers MLB Rank in Defensive Efficiency
Year
Defensive Efficiency MLB Rank
2019
2
2020
2
2021
1
2022
1
2023
2
2024
2
2025
18
Dodgers pitchers allow the same average exit velocity this year as Rockies pitchers.
It continues an erosion of generating soft contact. Check out this decline.
Dodgers Exit Velocity Allowed
Year
Average MPH
MLB Rank
2022
87.4
1
2023
88.7
8
2024
88.9
17
2025
89.8
24 (tied with Rockies)
And of the Dodgers’ seven positions behind the pitcher, five of them rate average or worse, according to Outs Above Average (OAA).
Dodgers Weakest Defensive Positions by Outs Above Average (OAA)
Position
OAA
MLB Rank
Third Base
-7
24
Left Field
-6
22
Right Field
-5
21
First Base
-4
19
Shortstop
0
18
5. Dodgers don’t get enough starting pitching length
The Dodgers in recent years have redefined starter workloads. They pitch their starters with more rest and get them out quicker than any other team. They have taken this philosophy to a new extreme.
Dodgers Starters
Amount
MLB Rank
Starts on Four Days Rest
7
Fewest
Batters Faced Third Time Per Start
3.5
Fewest
Pitches Per Start
76
Fewest
Innings Per Start
4.6
Fewest
The result is that because of injuries and workload management none of their starters are in top form. Maybe they will be, come October.
6. Dodgers don’t have enough shutdown relievers
Manager Dave Roberts does not have a clear path to lock down games. This ranking is damning: the Dodgers and Yankees rank among non-contenders as allowing the highest OPS in high leverage spots.
Highest OPS Allowed in High Leverage, 2025
Team
OPS Allowed in High Leverage Spot
1. Rockies
.848
2. Nationals
.819
3. Angels
.808
4. Diamondbacks
.782
T5. Athletics
.774
T5. Marlins
.774
T7. Dodgers
.764
T7. Yankees
.764
9. White Sox
.754
So, who does Roberts trust? Here are his most used pitchers in high leverage:
Most Batters Faced in High Leverage, Dodgers 2025
Pitcher
Batters Faced
OPS in High Leverage Spot
Notes
1. Tanner Scott
89
.820
Injured List
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
78
.695
Starter
3. Alex Vesia
71
.694
.759 OPS by RHB
4. Ben Casparius
65
.784
4.78 ERA
5. Dustin May
59
1.084
Traded
Three years ago, the Dodgers adopted a paradigm shift. That year they went 51–21 in the second half to win 111 games, a franchise record. They were in the business of building superteams and putting the gas pedal to the floor to get the No. 1 seed.
What it got them was a first-round exit. The Padres sent the superteam home quickly. They held them to 12 runs and a .227 batting average in four games.
The Dodgers learned a lesson. No more maxing out. The north star became workload management. Win enough games to get to the postseason but make sure you get there with your pitchers healthy and with gas in the tank.
It worked last year, barely. Gavin Stone, who broke down, led the staff with 140 innings. But when Walker Buehler got the last out of the World Series, Kiké Hernandez, a position player, would have been the next pitcher if the Yankees scored the tying run.
This year feels like even more of a risk of for October, not grinding toward it. The Dodgers are the oldest team in baseball. They don’t turn batted balls into outs like they used to. And they don’t have the bullpen depth to withstand planned, abbreviated starts.
More than any other team, the Dodgers play the long game. It may work again. But two things have changed.
Now the Dodgers are playing from behind.
And the Padres, fortified by the trade deadline, are lighting it up like it’s the Fourth of July.
