MMQB DIVISIONAL-ROUND PICKS | NFL BETTING PICKS
There could be a playoff classic brewing Sunday in Buffalo where Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will face off in the final divisional round game of the weekend in the NFL playoffs.
All eyes will be on the highly anticipated showdown between Allen’s Buffalo Bills and Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, but the other three games could also provide plenty of drama, possibly making up for the five blowout games that occurred in last week’s wild-card round.
The Houston Texans will be looking to pull off another playoff upset Saturday when they face the Kansas City Chiefs, who will begin their quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. The Texans leaned on a dominant defensive performance to cruise against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round.
The Detroit Lions will aim to finish what they started last postseason when they host the Washington Commanders for the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels delivered a game-winning drive for the Commanders to get past the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles kick off the action in the first of two games Sunday. The Rams’ rising defense will have its hands full against Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,005 yards in the regular season.
Here’s everything you need to know about the divisional round, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Iain MacMillan’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
SATURDAY
Houston Texans (11–7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15–2)
When/TV: 4:30 p.m. ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (over/under: 41.5)
Matchup to watch: Texans’ pass rushers vs. Chiefs’ offensive line. Houston is coming off a dominant defensive performance, and they’re going to need more of the same, especially from star edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, to disrupt Patrick Mahomes’s timing and pull off the upset at Arrowhead Stadium. But Kansas City’s offensive line has drastically improved since moving All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to left tackle. Houston only had one sack when these two teams met almost four weeks ago in K.C. —
Key stat: In their Week 16 matchup, the Chiefs won 27–19 with the Kansas City defense hitting C.J. Stroud 11 times including four from Chris Jones. Houston allowed 56 hits on Stroud during the season, seventh-most in footba. However, the quarterback hit the most? Patrick Mahomes at 70. Which team gets to the other quarterback more? —
Best bet: Texans +375. Call me crazy, but I think we’re going to see a big upset in this game. The Chiefs rank last amongst remaining playoff teams in net yards per play this season at -0.2. Their biggest strength and the reason they have the record they do is their ability to consistently elevate their play on third down. That sets up for an intriguing matchup against the Texans, who have one of the best third-down defenses in the NFL, ranking third in opponent third-down success rate. If you want to take a shot on a big underdog to win outright his weekend, consider the Texans at almost 4-1 odds. —
SI’s pick:The closer I get to this game, the more I want to pick the Texans, a team that everyone wrote off and referred to as a bye week before their physical, defense-forward win over the Chargers. However, betting against the Chiefs is a fool’s errand, even if that means robbing ourselves of a redux of Houston’s massive blown lead in the playoffs at Arrowhead a few years back. —
